The Road to al-Quds: ‘Scholarly certainty’ in coming fall of Israel (Pt. 1)

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In an episode of his online weekly show, author of Hezbollah: The Philosophy of Power (2018) and senior Lebanese political analyst Nasser Qandil, broke down a recent lengthy interview by Hezbollah’s leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

In the interview with the Lebanese al-Nour Radio, Nasrallah put forward the ‘very probable’ hypothesis that Israel may reach its demise in the foreseeable future without the need for any military conflict.

The following is a translation of segments of Qandil’s break down of Nasrallah’s hypothesis, in an episode Qandil titled ‘The Road to al-Quds (Jerusalem)’. This is part one of a two-part series. To read part two click here: The Road to al-Quds: 4 Reasons why Israel faces Existential Crisis (Pt. 2)

Source: Nassser Qandil (YouTube)

Date: May 31, 2020


Nasser Qandil:

As previously mentioned in the brief appearance I’ve made to comment on the in-depth interview with his eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah about the road map towards dismantling the (Israeli) occupying entity, the title of this episode is “The Road to Jerusalem”, the road mapped out by the resistance leader (Nasrallah). We have always talked about the “certain” fall of the (Israeli) entity. Since its emergence forty years ago, the Resistance (Hezbollah) was “certain” that this (Israeli) entity will cease to exist. It was absolutely certain. But we have three different types of certainty:

1. Religious Certainty

It stems from the belief that Allah promised that this (Israeli) entity will cease to exist. Whether because, (as mentioned in the Quran) “Allah’s promise is indeed true” (Ar-Roum: 60) or because it is promised that the Israelites will be expelled as they were the first time, and you will “enter the temple in Jerusalem, as they entered it the first time” (Israa:7). This is regarding those whose certainty stems from their faith.

2. Temporal Certainty

As for those who base their certainty on temporal aspects, his eminence (Nasrallah) always says that the objective and historical norms intersect with the Divine law. Therefore, those who believe in the objective and historical norms– after all, (Israel) is an entity built on usurpation, settlement, on depriving “the people of the land” (Palestinians) of their right, their cause, their history, their existence and their properties. This great injustice that the Palestinian people is suffering will be over if they keep fighting for their right; if the people of the region, especially Arab and Muslim people, stand with them; if the free and honourable people of the world support them. It doesn’t matter who is backing the Israelis, this entity will collapse. The (Israeli) entity is destined to cease from existence.

These two kinds of certainty have a future dimension that has no specific date. In other words, even if there is no resistance, no deterrent force, no Axis of Resistance, no ongoing clash in Palestine, even if the occupying entity may seem dominant and in control, I could still come up and say, with complete honesty: “I am certain that this entity will not survive.”  For example, when the Israelis invaded Beirut, and the (Israeli) occupation was at its peak and was supporting the election of Bashir Gemayel as the President of the Republic, I am one of the people who stood up and publicly said that they (the Israelis) will not bear to stay (in Lebanon) for more than three years, and they will be soon outside of the Lebanese basic structure. I remember saying “Give us five years, and they will be…” Of course, in the year 1985, (Ehud) Barak (Former Prime Minister of Israel) himself admitted, [we will get more on the subject in a bit], that “we (the Israeli army) were supposed to retreat to the borders, but what made us stay is failing to sell the withdrawal because it was, in every respect, a defeat. Therefore, Israel, or rather the occupying entity, needed all this time to swallow the poison of having no choice but to withdraw.

3. Political Certainty

Another certainty is political certainty. What is political certainty? It is that, based on the close scholarly and scientific reading of the facts, of the balance of power, the options, the scenarios, the assumptions made by the (Israeli) entity and its allies in the USA, the West, the Gulf, in addition to the resources devoted to protect the (Israeli) entity, and the normalisation (of relations with Israel); (all of that) in comparison to the Resistance and its determination, the people of Palestine and their determination, the deal of the century and its results and implications, the Axis of Resistance and its equations, we come to the conclusion that we are living at the time in which Israel will cease to exist. The exits the (Israeli) entity could use to escape from its crisis are all blocked. It can no longer take a step forward nor a step back. Therefore, the period of Israel’s disintegration has begun. This conclusion does not mean that Israel will on principle cease to exist, or that Allah promised that it (Israel) will cease to exist, or that the rightful people must gain their right back as long as they fight for it. No matter how you perceive it, the first two kinds of certainty are at one level and the third political certainty is at a higher level because it cannot be argued ideologically. It (political certainty) is not related to your faith, or whether you are affiliated with the resistance or with the (Israeli) entity, this is a political matter.

Why am I starting with these introductions? Because I want this episode to be methodically one of the exceptional episodes in “Sixty Minutes with Nasser Qandil”. This episode is like a whole book. The first section that we will discussing is: the demise of the (Israeli) entity. The second section is about Barak (Former PM of Israel): What did Barak say so that his eminence (Nasrallah) considered his statements a turning point that must be followed up and read up on in order to understand these dynamics? The third section discusses the manifestations of this concept and these conclusions in the current reality, and how they shape the dynamics of the conflict. What is being fought over? What matters are being finalised by the Axis of Resistance to reach the inevitable path that awaits the entity today, and not after generations? We have these three sections.

The Demise of the (Israeli) Entity

We are talking about the demise of the (Israeli) entity now, in our time. His eminence (Nasrallah) is sixty or sixty-one years old. In other words, we, this generation, have hope, based on natural medical and human standards, that we will witness in our lifetime the demise of Israel in twenty years or less, perhaps in 15, 12, 10 or 8 years. We are living in the time of Israel’s demise. This is unusual. Of course, this would mean a change in the whole world. This would mean that America is not as dominant as it was since World War II at least. So, let us see. What are we talking about? His eminence Sayyed (Nasrallah) believes, and I share his belief of course, that this (Israeli) entity went through everything possible. It fought wars and battles, negotiated settlements and reached a dead end.

It still exists thanks to the power of two things. The first thing is that it avoids slipping into a confrontation that could lead to war, because this would be “the great war” in which all the Axis of Resistance is involved, the war that would result in the demise of the (Israel) entity. The (Israeli) entity still exists because it is playing it smart, because it avoids slipping into (this) war. It (carries out) strikes carefully without causing major damage to avoid a painful response. In case of a painful response the (Israeli) entity’s arrogance will force it to hit back only to persuade its public opinion that it is strong and able to survive and protect them. It will have to respond. The Israeli entity will plunge into a war that would result in its demise. It still exists thanks to this factor, in addition to the fact that it has exhausted everything in terms of fighting wars or establishing peace, and by peace I mean settlements. It can no longer fight a war or make a settlement. Its existence is (hence) preserved thanks to the power of the American presence in the region. Therefore, either the Americans will leave the region and the (Israeli) entity will fall prematurely (i.e. without war), or it (Israel) will slip into a war – “the great war” – and the (Israeli) entity will fall by (military) force. Therefore, Sayyed (Nasrallah) put forward (in the recent television interview) the hypothesis that Israel might cease to exist without a (military) war.

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